China's First Female Astronaut

As I write this China's first female astronaut is orbiting the planet. ( for more go to: http://news.yahoo.com/china-puts-first-woman-astronaut-orbit-105154354.html ).  Now I respect the how sharp this woman must be to have risen to such a position in a country where brutal competition is the order of the day and I certainly do not mean to diminish China's space ambitions (you can just feel a big 'BUT' coming can't you?) but is this anything more than an effort to start chalking up political 'firsts'?

Russia put the first woman in space almost 50 years ago. Valentina Tereshkova  was the first woman in space in Vostock 6 on 16 June 1963 (becoming both the first woman and the first civilian to fly in space).  Her flight was considered more of a political publicity stunt by western observers (despite having groomed a group of American female astronauts to mirror the Mercury 7, none of whom ever flew in space; hey, it was the macho 60s) and NASA was not really interested in competing with Russia on seemingly minor political or public relations stunts.   As a result of NASA's unwavering comminttment to the moon landing, the Russians racked up a series of 'firsts' in space flight.  First to get man into psace (Gagarin in Vostock), first to get a man into orbit (Titov in Vostock: technically Gagarin did not complete a full orbit and)), first to launch a 2 man and then 3 man crew (Voshkod), first woman in space (Tereshkova), first space walk (Alexi Leonov) and the first space stations.  Meanwhile the Americans were taking a much more 'long term goal' oriented approach that made these advances in a logical progression (not based on concerns about being the first to perfom them).

While the Russians were racking up public relations victories with a series of 'firsts' the Americans were very methodically making important material advances and following up on them.  An example was the early space walks.  While Leonov basically bobbed around for 10 minutes before getting back in (which he alost was unable to do) American space walkers were learning to do real work on their extra vehicular activities (EVAs aka space walks).

After a while the Russians ran out of realtively easy and affordable 'firsts' and the Americans began to eclipse them in world headlines.  When Apollo 8 orbited the moon the Russians had nothing worthwhile to come back with.  They had ended their own lunar program when they realized the cost was prohibitive (and following the the loss of two of their N-1 moon rockets).  The USSR decided to concentrate on more affordable things like space stations.  When America landed men on the moon, the USA had won the space race.  The space race ended up being the kind of competition where the first guy off blocks sprints pass the grand stand grinning at the audience only to have the steady, well paced runner eventually eclipse him for the win.

NASA did finally put a woman awoman in space, the late Dr. Sally Ride, in 1983 (she passed away from cancer in July, 2012).  Dr. Ride had a PhD in Physics was was chosen out a group of 8,000 candidates, many of them also women.    Since then numerous women have flown into space and 4 have died in the effort (In the space shuttle Challenger, teacher Christa McAuliffe, and Judith Resnik died, January 1986. In February 2003, Lauren B. Clark and Kalpana Chawla were killed during re-entry of the shuttle Columbia).

Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Which_women_have_died_in_space_missions#ixzz1xyy4PF21

Now China, only a mere 5 decades behind the west, is repeating the same story.  Orbit a few guys, toss up a girl for a few orbits; then we'll see a 2 or 3 man ship and a few space walks perhaps followed by a small space station (or they can just buy our share of the ISS in exchange for retiring someof our debt).  Eventually they may actually make it to the moon.  If they do, hurray for them.  When they get there, if they could visit the Apollo 11 landing site and be so kind as to put the American flag back up.  I think Neil and Buzz's rocket motor knocked it over when they left....in 1969!

The slow decline of General Aviation in America.

Numbers do not lie and the harsh reality is that general aviation in the United States is on the decline.  There are many reasons for this ranging from high fuel prices to the stratospheric cost of new planes.  Many boogeymen have been identified but, in fact, there is not one lone culprit but a litany of sometimes seemingly unrelated ones.

Among the things that have an impact on new aircraft sales are interest rates, fuel prices, product liability costs, labor costs, the small scale of production, tax codes and the regulatory environment.  Oddly enough the sale of new general aviation aircraft is not as dependent on the overall health of the economy as one might think (as you will see later).

Another major issue is the cost and commitment of learning to fly.  All of these factors have an impact on the cost of obtaining a private pilot certificate and, when combined with an “instant gratification” oriented society, it becomes increasingly difficult to get new flying students through the door.  It is no small task to get someone to commit up to $10,000 and several months of their time to the endeavor.

In addition, the expensive light planes currently in production are in competition with substantially cheaper used planes.  The history of new light plane production holds some pretty cold math as noted in these data points.  Here is the history of modern light plane manufactoring at a glance:

In 1965 American aircraft companies sold 15,768 new private planes.  Despite a recession the number actually climbed to 17,811 new planes sold in 1978 (thus my earlier point that general aviation is not as directly linked to the overall economic picture as commercial aviation).  By 1980 the number had drifted down to 11,871 new aircraft sales and by 1981 it was only 9,457.  Then sales really started to plunge and by 1982 they had dropped by over half to only 4,266 new planes sold.  In 1986 Cessna Aircraft stopped making piston engine light planes.  By 1994 it only 928 new planes were sold in all the United States (this includes corporate aircraft).  There was a slight uptick and in 2009 when sales reached 1,587 but by 2010 sales were in decline again with only 1,334 new plane sales (a 16% drop).

In addition, most pilots attending flying schools today are working toward flying as a career.  There are less and less private pilot candidates as the cost and regulation continue to rise.  Increasing equipment requirements along with tighter security is both driving up costs and soaking much of the fun out of sport aviation.  Insurance is getting higher and many aircraft owners have elected to drop it.

Insurance has an impact on sales of new planes too.  In 1962 product liability was $52 per plane but by $1972 it had risen to $2,111 per unit.  Those were 1972 dollars.  That is $11,591 today.  Between that, low production volume (no economy of scale) high labor costs and a dwindling pool of potential buyers (pilots) the per-unit cost on a shiney new 2012 Cessna 172 tops $300,000.  Despite an impressive instrument suite and many enhancements it is still a Cessna-172.  This all colludes to hurt general aviation and helps us understand why only 19,893 new private pilot certificates were issues by the FAA in 2009 and that number dropped to 14,977 in 2010 (-25%). 

As the old guard of private pilots in their Luscombes and Piper Cubs begins to gentrify and as the rising cost forces more and more private pilots out of the arena we see a dwindling in our ranks.  Now the latest Cessna (The 162) is made in China.  Pilots are a largely patriotic bunch and the wisdom of this move (or lack thereof) will bear out in time.  General aviation is far from dead in America but unless we can invigorate a new generation of general aviation enthusiasts GA may be in a slow graveyard spiral toward the sunset.  Nowhere in this history of humankind have people known the kind of freedom allowed the private pilot.  The ability to jump in your own plane, point the nose where you like and just GO!  It will be a sad day and the end on one of the greatest eras in world history when the last private pilot heads west.